Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
